Friday, 19 May 2017

Polarising polls



This table shows recent polls and the movement for each of the main parties. From the evidence below it would seem that the last few days have seen some positive shifts towards Labour, and a rather mixed picture for the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats are losing ground and UKIP is rather static.



Lab
Con
LD
UKIP
18 May
Ipsos MORI
+8
nc
-6
-2
18 May
YouGov
+1
-4
-1
+3
16 May
Kantar
+1
+3
-3
-2
16 May
Panelbase
+2
-1
-1
nc
15 May
Survation
nc
+1
+1
nc
15 May
ICM
-1
+1
+1
nc

This suggests, and other polls back this up, the this General Election is seeing voters polarising behind the two main parties.

Clearly the Conservatives have a handsome lead, albeit one that is modestly shrinking. It does look like the minor parties are shedding support, and Labour will be the main challenger in places do not win.

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