You don’t have to be popular to win

Elections are often described as popularity contests, and sometimes this is true. But in low turnout elections popularity can be trumped by efficiency. Get more of your supporters to vote than the others manage to and you have won.
It is possible, and has happened, to win an election with less than one in ten voters.

The average ward size in Southend-on-Sea is 7852 voters (2017) ( Ward sizes in Southend-on-Sea).

Let’s assume that ten percent as 780 in any given year, below is a list of winning votes than fall below this bar, from 2001 when the last ward boundary changes were made.

All parties have been the beneficiary of wins in low turnout elections in Southend-on-Sea, but none so often as Labour. Efficient or lucky, take your pick. What is clear to this blogger is that there is everything to play for in most wards, even at this late stage

The list of winners succeeding with fewer than 780 makes for remarkable reading. In 2002, the Westborough winner got 6.8% of the possible vote. The 2012 success in Westborough was won with the support of 7.3% of the eligible voters, St Luke’s in 2003 was won with 7.7% of the electorate there supporting the winning candidate.

year	ward	votes	winner
2002	Westborough	487	Labour
2012	Westborough	551	Independent
2003	St Luke’s	590	Labour
2014	Kursaal	612	UKIP
2012	Kursaal	614	Labour
2004	Kursaal	627	Labour
2003	Westborough	640	Independent
2003	Kursaal	644	Labour
2002	Kursaal	648	Labour
2006	Kursaal	650	Labour
2003	Victoria	667	Labour
2006	Westborough	673	Alliance Southend
2012	Milton	675	Labour
2012	Blenheim Park	683	Liberal Democrat
2016	Westborough	693	Labour
2016	Kursaal	709	Labour
2012	Prittlewell	712	Liberal Democrat
2007	Kursaal	715	Labour
2008	Victoria	719	Labour
2006	Victoria	719	Labour
2014	Westborough	726	Labour
2016	Shoeburyness	728	Independent
2007	Victoria	744	Labour
2008	Kursaal	747	Conservative
2016	Prittlewell	758	Conservative
2012	St Laurence	758	Conservative
2007	Westborough	768	Independent
2014	Westborough	779	Labour