Wednesday, 25 April 2018

My predictions for eight days time

What is going to happen on May 3rd in Southend-on-Sea? I am expecting to see some significant changes.

What happened in the last set of local elections? The 2016 the vote share by party in Southend was as follows :-

29.7% Conservative
21.4% Independent
19.8% Labour
14.6% UKIP
10.2% Liberal Democrat
4.4% Green

In last year’s General Election there was a definite and significant shift back towards two-party politics. This will doubtless unravel to some extent, but I sense that it will still have an impact and that both Labour and the Conservatives in Southend-on-Sea will see an increase in heir vote share.

I cannot see anything but failure for UKIP, and I will be amazed if they get as much as 5% this time. The Greens will struggle too, and I see 3% for them.

The Liberal Democrats were squeezed last June, losing deposits in both of the two Southend constituencies. I sense a bit of a recovery for them, and I think they will do well to hold onto the 10% they got in 2016.

I think the Independent Group’s star is in decline and I think they will lose a couple of councillors.

In the General Election we saw the following vote shares:-


Southend West
Rochford and Southend East
Conservative
55.2%
48.7%
Labour
34.6%
37.0%
Liberal Democrat
4.5%
2.7%
UKIP
3.6%
3.8%
Green
1.8%
1.7%
Southend Independent Association
0.6%

Independent
0.4%
6.2%

So, my prediction for May 3rd is as follows:-

37% Conservative (+7.3%)
30% Labour (+10.2%)
15% Independent (-6.4%)
10% Liberal Democrat (-0.2%)
5% UKIP (-9.6%)
3% Green (-2.4%)

I think this translates to gains for Labour and the Tories, losses for the independent Group. The Liberal Democrats could cease to be a group, possibly down to just the one member. The Tory majority will likely grow, and that Labour will become the second largest party in the chamber (and the official opposition). If Labour make enough gains we could see the Tory majority shrink even, but that will take some big swings – who knows?

This is a long way from a boring set of elections, and there are intriguing little battles going on right across the borough.

No comments:

Post a Comment