How it all ended up

Here is a summary of how the parties got on on May 3^rd in Southend-on-Sea.

party	% vote	wins	candidates
Conservative	36.8	8	17
Labour	26.8	5	17
Independent	20.0	3	11
Liberal Democrat	12.6	1	16
Green	2.8	0	8
Southend Independent Association	1.0	0	1
UKIP	0.9	0	3
Psychedelic Future	0.1	0	1

In Southend West the vote share fell thus –

40.2% Conservative

23.9% Labour

18.7 Liberal Democrat

In Southend East …

32.7% Conservative

30.2% Labour

5.3% Liberal Democrat

·       This is the best Labour vote % since 2001.

·       This is an improvement for the Conservatives as compared to 2016.

·       This is the best Liberal Democrat vote % since 2014.

·       This is the worst UKIP performance, ever.

Another campaign is over

Another election campaign is over, and Labour can celebrate some successes in Southend-on-Sea. However, the Conservatives increased their majority and will be pleased enough with that. Next year, though, should prove quite a bit more fruitful for the Labour with the potential for quite a number of gains.

Labour will be hopeful to remove the remaining Tories in Milton and Kursaal, and now that we have a presence in Blenheim Park will will be aiming to double our presence in that ward. St Luke’s and Prittlewell are also within striking distance. Five gains is certainly not impossible.

One of a dying breed - a garden board

Every campaign is different. This one, to this observer, seemed a somewhat subdued affair at times, although it was clear that there were some right battles going on in some wards. Where were the garden-boards and posters? I genuinely cannot recall anything from the Tories in this respect. My unscientific guess was that the poster war was won by Labour, with the Independent Group and the Liberal Democrats trailing; I saw nothing from the Greens, or UKIP.

I was told by one resident that I “only turn up at election times”. This may be true of some councillors and candidates, but it is definitely not true of me. The resident closed the door as I was protesting my innocence as to this particular accusation. The truth is that I am out speaking to residents all year round, and will soon be out again doing just that. However, there will be some who will believe that I only show up when a poll is imminent, and there is not much I can do about that besides just doing what I always do.

I can, and do, take solace and satisfaction in an increased Labour majority in Milton ward. Aside from 2015 when the local elections coincided with a General Election, the Labour majority has increased every year since 2012 – that is four victories with our majority growing each time. In 2012 I took the seat from a Tory with a 68 vote majority, the Labour victory margin now stands at 473. This is a testament to the hard work put in by the Milton team. This ward was a safe Tory ward, and now boasts Labour’s biggest vote across the borough. We also have the largest Labour membership (I believe) and I am convinced that in twelve months’ time the ward will have three Labour councillors.

In the cut and thrust of political battle it is easy to forget that we are all human, and there is a human cost to elections. I make it that we are saying goodbye to seven councillors this time around, which seems like quite significant churn t me.

Gone are: Mo Butler, Tino Callaghan, Lawrence Davies, Caroline Endersby, Derek Kenyon, James Moyies, Floyd Waterworth.

In 2014 there were five UKIP councillors elected in Southend-on-Sea; every one of them has now gone. David McGlone was elected in 2015 as a UKIP councillor, and he has survived. UKIP’s goose is well and truly cooked, and those who think that changing party allegiance is a guarantee of electoral safety will have to re-think that strategy.

The Blenheim Park pretend independent

Keith Evans promises to “recognise the importance of representing residents and businesses as an individual rather than a party”.

Firstly, I hope I prove that you can both be a loyal party member as well as having an individual voice.

Secondly, though, like his Independent Group Party friends Mr Evans imagine he fools residents into believing that describing yourself as ‘independent’ makes it so. However, his imprint gives him away: “Promoted by Ron Woodley”!

Mr Evans is not truly independent (whatever that really means anyway) and if he cannot be straight on this how can anyone trust him?

Occasionally the Independent Group Party is reasonably upfront about being a party. Most of the time, though, it is an exercise in misinformation for them. And, of course, pretending to be independent saves one from having to have and hold onto any principles.

My predictions for eight days time

What is going to happen on May 3rd in Southend-on-Sea? I am expecting to see some significant changes.

What happened in the last set of local elections? The 2016 the vote share by party in Southend was as follows :-

29.7% Conservative

21.4% Independent

19.8% Labour

14.6% UKIP

10.2% Liberal Democrat

4.4% Green

In last year’s General Election there was a definite and significant shift back towards two-party politics. This will doubtless unravel to some extent, but I sense that it will still have an impact and that both Labour and the Conservatives in Southend-on-Sea will see an increase in heir vote share.

I cannot see anything but failure for UKIP, and I will be amazed if they get as much as 5% this time. The Greens will struggle too, and I see 3% for them.

The Liberal Democrats were squeezed last June, losing deposits in both of the two Southend constituencies. I sense a bit of a recovery for them, and I think they will do well to hold onto the 10% they got in 2016.

I think the Independent Group’s star is in decline and I think they will lose a couple of councillors.

In the General Election we saw the following vote shares:-

	Southend West	Rochford and Southend East
Conservative	55.2%	48.7%
Labour	34.6%	37.0%
Liberal Democrat	4.5%	2.7%
UKIP	3.6%	3.8%
Green	1.8%	1.7%
Southend Independent Association	0.6%
Independent	0.4%	6.2%

So, my prediction for May 3rd is as follows:-

37% Conservative (+7.3%)

30% Labour (+10.2%)

15% Independent (-6.4%)

10% Liberal Democrat (-0.2%)

5% UKIP (-9.6%)

3% Green (-2.4%)

I think this translates to gains for Labour and the Tories, losses for the independent Group. The Liberal Democrats could cease to be a group, possibly down to just the one member. The Tory majority will likely grow, and that Labour will become the second largest party in the chamber (and the official opposition). If Labour make enough gains we could see the Tory majority shrink even, but that will take some big swings – who knows?

This is a long way from a boring set of elections, and there are intriguing little battles going on right across the borough.