I had this vague notion that the higher the turnout, the
better were Labour's chances in Milton ward. This is a generally accepted rule
for Labour across the country, although there are local exceptions. The
reasoning behind this presumption is that Labour voters are seen as less
inclined to express their suffrage; whereas Conservative voters, in general, are
more eager to cast their votes.
Therefore, the higher the turnout, it is presumed, the
more likely that this will include Labour supporters. Low turnout equates to
Labour voters staying at home.
A by-product of this thinking (that Labour voters are
less inclined to make an effort on polling day) is that we have to encourage
and cajole people into voting, especially in marginal seats. This means that
polling day itself is a long day for Labour activists.
I am aware that all serious contenders will be out
encouraging their supporters to make the effort at the ballot box. A marginal
like Milton will see teams from both the main two parties out all day. (I am
not deliberately denigrating the efforts of the other parties, but I have yet
to see them make any real effort here.)
This table shows the turnout and the Labour vote in percentage
terms.
Year
|
Lab %
|
Turnout %
|
Position
|
2016
|
45.3
|
30.5
|
1
|
2015
|
37.8
|
57.9
|
2
|
2014
|
36.4
|
30.3
|
1
|
2012
|
35.8
|
24.4
|
1
|
2011
|
32.5
|
33.9
|
2
|
2010
|
22.8
|
52.0
|
2
|
2008
|
25.8
|
28.1
|
2
|
2007
|
27.9
|
26.5
|
2
|
2006
|
21.1
|
30.0
|
2
|
2004
|
27.6
|
30.9
|
2
|
2003
|
20.1
|
22.2
|
2
|
2002
|
34.7
|
27.5
|
2
|
2001
|
46.8
|
47.4
|
2
|
It is far from conclusive one way or another, although I
think there is some correlation between increased turnout and increased support
for Labour. General Election years create anomalies.
The cynic in me could make an argument that making voting
more difficult is in the best interests of the Conservative party, which may
explain some of their recent reforms. Whatever, my aim is to drive turnout up
in Milton ward, regardless of the consequences.
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