Thursday, 26 January 2017

A month of polls



Here is a summary of the opinion polls for the last month or so. To be honest, they do not make a for tremendously good read if you are a Labour supporter. However, Liberal Democrats will not be heartened either.



Lab
Con
LDem
UKIP
Grn
23-Jan-2017
ICM
26
42
10
13
5
17-Jan-2017
YouGov
28
39
11
13

17-Jan-2017
Survation
29
38
10
13
2
14-Jan-2017
Opinium
30
38
7
14

9-Jan-2017
ICM
28
42
9
12
4
6-Jan-2017
YouGov
26
39
10
14
4
18-Dec-2016
Opinium
31
38
6
13
4
15-Dec-2016
Ipsos MORI
29
40
14
9
3
13-Dec-2016
ICM
27
41
9
14
3
9-Dec-2016
YouGov
25
42
11
12
4








avg
28
40
9.7
12.7
3.6

There is no General Election tomorrow, so in some minds these polls can be ignored. That, in my humble opinion, is wrong.  Whatever one thinks of Labour's performance, and the policy positions it is taking, it is not (at the moment) gaining favour with enough of the voting public. These numbers have to improve for Jeremy Corbyn to stand a chance of holding the keys to 10 Downing Street.

Of course, Labour could do nothing and still see the public swinging their way. We could be persuasive enough to encourage people to back our policies. We could see real problems in the economy that see hordes shrinking from the Conservative embrace. We could also see an end to the disunity that has dogged Labour recently.

In the end I suspect it will take a combination of all three, in differing measures.

On another point, I note that UKIP are still attracting good numbers. Those who hoped that Brexit would see an end to this right-wing party are going to be disappointed, at least in the short-term.  

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