I think my
general advice after any setback has always been "don't panic", and
this is what I would offer to the Labour leadership today.
Last night's
results were a contrast. Labour is struggling in the polls, and it therefore
cannot surprise anyone that both Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central would
provide s stiff challenge. In the end the challenge in Copeland proved too
much.
Whilst advising
against panic I would suggest that things need to be addressed. Distilled to
what I believe is the simplest I think we need to concentrate on one thing, and
that is our polling. We cannot hope to be truly competitive in any contest when
we trail the Tories by 18%, with our vote languishing at 26%. These numbers
make huge numbers of seats at all levels very vulnerable indeed.
Of course, this
simple solution is actually quite complicated, but one thing stands out: we
have to be united. I have been quite critical of Corbyn during both of his
leadership contests, but he is not going anywhere. Besides, any replacement is
likely to come from the same wing of the party (unless the left can be excluded
from the ballot paper, which I think would be inadvisable). Those of us who are
moderates have to find common ground with the left, and there is actually much
in common anyway.
Jeremy Corbyn
has to be better. I think he has improved since his re-election, but it is
still a work in progress. Like it or not, he does come across as being slow to
react at times, and looks somewhat detached from ordinary lives. His media team
have got to up their game.
It is not all
bad. Labour's Stoke result was respectable, and whilst we lost Copeland it was
close enough for local activists to have something to work on for next time.
Stoke-on-Trent Central
37.1% Labour
24.7% UKIP
24.4%
Conservative
9.8% Liberal
Democrat
1.4% Green
At 36.7% one
could describe the turnout as poor. The Labour vote share dropped by 2.2%,
which is more or less the rise in the UKIP vote .Amongst the other parties I
was pleased to see that the OMRLP beat the BNP.
The Tories
finishing third behind UKIP (which is a mirror of 2015) should concern them. I
do not see UKIP disappearing any time soon. However, UKIP are taking Labour
votes, and our leadership needs to address the concerns of those who are
deserting us.
Copeland
44.3%
Conservative
37.3% Labour
7.3% Liberal
Democrat
6.5% UKIP
1.7% Green
This was not
really a true marginal, and should have been won by Labour. However, it wasn't,
and lessons will have to be learned. At 51.3% the turnout was not awful,
especially against the backdrop of Storm Doris. If Labour gets its act together
this should be re-taken at the next General Election.
I'd agree with most of what you wrote, Julian. The Labour party's problem is that it has failed to represent the underprivileged, which is its job. Most of its MPs were elected on a manifesto of "Tory-lite" and there is no point in following that course any more. Unfortunately, although it might take a change of leader to improve the party's fortunes, you quite rightly point out that the membership must be seen to get behind their leader, which they are not doing. I think they were quite right to break the 3 line whip over the Brexit bill - but not enough did. If Corbyn had been true to himself and properly attacked the Tories then I think things would have been different in these by-elections.
ReplyDeleteYou have to ask yourself would any other leader have done any better? The name that keeps coming back to me every time I think about a natural Labour leader is Yvette Cooper. Where is she? She has a wealth of front bench experience that would be really useful to someone with none like Corbyn. He's been a back bencher for his entire career. It's hardly a surprise that he finds party leadership a real challenge. At least he is trying though. It's the experienced former front benchers who I would blame for Labour's current languishing in the polls. They ought to swallow their pride and represent the membership by getting behind Corbyn and helping to shape policy.
The Tories are wrecking the country and are getting away with it because the most cogent opposition party at the moment is in Scotland. Labour's current turmoil is allowing them to do it.
We are still feeling the effects of the fallout from the Referendum and leadership contest. I like Hilary Benn, who clearly fell out of favour.
ReplyDeleteI do not subscribe to your assertion about 'Tory-lite', but I do see a disconnect between a metropolitan elite (which it could be argued Corbyn belongs to) and the aspirations of the wider urban working class outside of London and the big cities.