UKIP declining in Southend-on-Sea

UKIP are fielding three candidates in this year’s local elections in Southend-on-Sea. This is way below the numbers fielded at their high point. Here are this year’s UKIP trio:


Belfairs – Frank Snell
Blenheim Park – Paul Lloyd
West Leigh – Lesley Martin

We are back to 2008 levels and earlier in terms of the size of the UKIP team in Southend’s local elections. It remains to be seen whether we are back to those levels in terms of vote share; this table shows UKIP’s performance over the years in Southend-on-Sea.

	candidates	wins	vote %
2016	16	0	14.6
2015	9	1	10.2
2014	12	5	19.1
2012	7	0	7.7
2011	9	0	6.6
2010	12	0	4.2
2008	3	0	1.3
2007	3	0	1.7
2006	2	0	2.1
2004	1	0	1.6
2000	3	0	1.5

Four years ago, when those seeking re-election on May 3^rd last sought approval from their electorates, UKIP won five seats. One lasted but a year, replaced in a by-election by another from UKIP. Subsequently all have defected; three are now Independents, two sought the comforting embrace of the Conservative Party. Voting UKIP is no guarantee of getting a UIP councillor, or indeed one that stays true to their principles.

One of the UKIP councillors even tried his hand at a Parliamentary seat before deserting the party that got him elected.

Laurie Burton - Labour candidate in Blenheim Park ward

UKIP national fortunes have declined during this period too, as the referendum and a series of leadership mishaps have damaged their reason for existence, as well as their credibility.

UKIP in Southend are only attempting to recapture Blenheim Park; they are avoiding the other wards they won in in 2014. Oddly, in 2016 the fielded candidates in all but one ward, Belfairs – a ward they are contesting this time around. I am puzzled by this strategy, if indeed any thought has been given as to where they are targeting their diminished resources.

Blenheim Park will prove an intriguing contest, and any of three candidates could take it. I do not see either the Liberal Democrat or Independent making any headway, but I can envisage an improved Labour performance.

PRESS RELEASE

Cllr Anne Jones defends local policy on apprenticeships

Southend-on-Sea Borough Council are offering paid apprenticeships; these are being paid at above minimum national rates for apprentices. The apprenticeship works toward a nationally recognised qualification.

Colleges offer the same qualification, but mandatory work placements are unpaid.

Young people may not be eligible for free entry to further education for courses, if they are 19, as their entitlement will have expired. For a career in Health and Social Care, they would have to self fund.

Southend-on-Sea Borough Council has a strong programme across its services for employing apprentices and many apprentices are now full time contracted staff members. The Council also has a number of degree entry level programmes, where fees would be often charged.

The Council has supported care leavers through its own apprenticeships and into full employment with the organisation. Care leavers are under-represented in the workplace.

The likelihood of retention as an employee means that they would be paid, upon completion of training, at rates above the local average.

Cllr Jones said: "It is ironic that UKIP should comment on this matter, much less object. The committee which discusses this, People Scrutiny, is one which they have failed to take up their place."

"People Scrutiny is the committee one would think that  UKIP would be most interested, yet at Appointments Council they failed to take up any scrutiny places. This changed when they realised they could not participate in a special scrutiny project and quickly joined the two other committees."

"Two of my sons have done Government apprenticeships and passed their Civil Service probation. On completion, they had priority on applications as a result" added Anne.

Labour in Southend will continue to campaign for fair pay, for equal pay, and for more jobs in the borough.

Southend UKIP propping up the unpopular

As we are about to see a change in who runs the Borough of Southend-on-Sea I think it pertinent to remind people that the new administration will be led by a Conservative Party that achieved its lowest vote share in more than two decades, attracting less than 30% of those that voted. They will be propped up by a party, UKIP, who failed to win a single seat.

Such is the bizarre nature of our democracy.

The Tory-UKIP pact replaces a Joint Administration, whose candidates received just over 51% of the popular vote.

So, it could be argued that not only are UKIP bending over backwards to give the reins of power to the Tories, they do this in defiance of the wishes of Southend's voters.

Still, doubtless both UKIP and their new found blue friends will now be able to celebrate every cut foisted upon them by Mr Cameron's Government. In the meantime, the Labour Group will continue to fight for fairness.

Tories down, Labour up - a look at recent results in Southend-on-Sea

Here is how Labour's vote share (percentage) has changed in recent years across a number of wards in Southend-on-Sea. I have ignored General Election years as these skew the data.

ward	2008	2011	2012	2014	2016	nett change
Westborough	9.4	26.5	31.0	33.2	33.9	24.5
Milton	25.8	32.5	35.8	36.4	45.3	19.5
Prittlewell	7.9	16.1	17.1	14.5	27..0	19.1
Victoria	37.7	48.7	50.4	39.5	54.7	17.0
Blenheim Park	9.1	18.6	16.5	14.3	24.6	15.5
Kursaal	38.0	44.5	38.8	31.5	42.2	4.2
St Luke's	19.4	21.3	25.8	26.5	20.9	1.5

By comparison, here are how the Conservative vote has changed over the same period.

ward	2008	2011	2012	2014	2016	nett change
Southchurch	37.0	38.0	35.8	38.8	35.1	-1.9
St Laurence	42.5	35.3	35.9	28.2	38.2	-4.3
Belfairs	43.9	51.7	29.6	44.7	39.2	-4.7
West Leigh	58.0	50.0	49.7	40.6	44.6	-13.4
Eastwood Park	57.2	52.3	50.9	41.8	42.6	-14.6
Chalkwell	56.6	47.3	41.7	37.3	38.5	-18.1
West Shoebury	56.3	51.7	39.1	34.8	36.0	-20.3

I have selected the best seven wards for both parties. Every Labour ward has seen improvement, significant in five of the seven. In contrast the Conservatives are down in all wards, significantly in four of them.

Whilst I cannot prove any correlation, the slump in Tory voter numbers matches the rise in UKIP support. The imminent pact may have consequences beyond handing power to an increasingly unpopular Conservative Party.

The slump in Liberal Democrat fortunes does not appear to have transferred voters in any significant numbers to Labour (or so it appears to me).  In 2010 there was certainly some transfer from yellow to red, but in recent years this has levelled out, and I would guess that it is the Greens who are benefiting from disaffected Liberal supporters. The caveat here, though, is that where Labour can seriously challenge the Tories then former Lib Dems votes are going red. The challenge for the Greens (and UKIP) is proving to voters that they can win wards - otherwise voters will peel off towards parties that do stand a realistic chance of seeing their candidates elected.