The Belfairs Liberal (for this year at least)

There are six candidates contesting Belfairs ward this year. Here is the Liberal Democrat candidate, a most unlikely winner if this were to happen. However, the Lib Dems have been quite a force in this ward in the past, but the possibility of former glories being re-visited this year is definitely remote.

Tories down, Labour up - a look at recent results in Southend-on-Sea

Here is how Labour's vote share (percentage) has changed in recent years across a number of wards in Southend-on-Sea. I have ignored General Election years as these skew the data.

ward	2008	2011	2012	2014	2016	nett change
Westborough	9.4	26.5	31.0	33.2	33.9	24.5
Milton	25.8	32.5	35.8	36.4	45.3	19.5
Prittlewell	7.9	16.1	17.1	14.5	27..0	19.1
Victoria	37.7	48.7	50.4	39.5	54.7	17.0
Blenheim Park	9.1	18.6	16.5	14.3	24.6	15.5
Kursaal	38.0	44.5	38.8	31.5	42.2	4.2
St Luke's	19.4	21.3	25.8	26.5	20.9	1.5

By comparison, here are how the Conservative vote has changed over the same period.

ward	2008	2011	2012	2014	2016	nett change
Southchurch	37.0	38.0	35.8	38.8	35.1	-1.9
St Laurence	42.5	35.3	35.9	28.2	38.2	-4.3
Belfairs	43.9	51.7	29.6	44.7	39.2	-4.7
West Leigh	58.0	50.0	49.7	40.6	44.6	-13.4
Eastwood Park	57.2	52.3	50.9	41.8	42.6	-14.6
Chalkwell	56.6	47.3	41.7	37.3	38.5	-18.1
West Shoebury	56.3	51.7	39.1	34.8	36.0	-20.3

I have selected the best seven wards for both parties. Every Labour ward has seen improvement, significant in five of the seven. In contrast the Conservatives are down in all wards, significantly in four of them.

Whilst I cannot prove any correlation, the slump in Tory voter numbers matches the rise in UKIP support. The imminent pact may have consequences beyond handing power to an increasingly unpopular Conservative Party.

The slump in Liberal Democrat fortunes does not appear to have transferred voters in any significant numbers to Labour (or so it appears to me).  In 2010 there was certainly some transfer from yellow to red, but in recent years this has levelled out, and I would guess that it is the Greens who are benefiting from disaffected Liberal supporters. The caveat here, though, is that where Labour can seriously challenge the Tories then former Lib Dems votes are going red. The challenge for the Greens (and UKIP) is proving to voters that they can win wards - otherwise voters will peel off towards parties that do stand a realistic chance of seeing their candidates elected.

Flux, a new face leads Southend's Liberal Democrats

One of the changes forced by last week's local election results in Southend-on-Sea was the change in Leader of the Liberal Democrat Group. Cllr Carole Mulroney now leads this two-person team.

There are seven Groups in the Southend-on-Sea Council chamber -

Conservative, Labour, Independent Group, Southend Independence Group, Liberal Democrat, ULIP, and Independent.

However, who belongs to which group is in an almost-constant state of flux, so expect changes to groups and numbers in the coming year.

Already thinking about 2018

I like numbers, which explains my penchant for number crunching the election results in Southend-on-Sea.

Here is some analysis which may be useful to some, and doubtless boring to others!

The battleground for 2018 is already being mapped out and nowhere is this better illustrated than by showing just how marginal some of those contests will be. It is pretty obvious that some wards are an electoral foregone conclusion, whereas others provide for intriguing possibilities.

ward	majority	victor	second placed
West Shoebury	43	Conservative	Independent
Southchurch	61	Conservative	Independent
Belfairs	61	Independent	Conservative
Prittlewell	78	Conservative	Labour
Shoeburyness	121	Independent	Conservative
Blenheim Park	160	Conservative	Labour
Westborough	242	Labour	Independent
Chalkwell	315	Conservative	Independent
Kursaal	330	Labour	UKIP
St Luke's	365	Independent	Labour
Eastwood Park	378	Conservative	UKIP
St Laurence	387	Conservative	UKIP
Milton	427	Labour	Conservative
West Leigh	450	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Leigh	611	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Victoria	630	Labour	UKIP
Thorpe	1398	Independent	Conservative

Four Tory held wards are marginal (majorities of less than 200), and this will prove significant for a council chamber that is so finely balanced. There are also four wards where the Tories do not feature in the top two, which is quite unusual for the borough.

There are seven wards where Labour secures more than 20% of the popular vote -

54.7% Victoria

45.3% Milton

42.2% Kursaal

33.9% Westborough

27.0% Prittlewell

24.6% Blenheim Park

20.9% St Luke's

The Tory vote share dips below 20% in three wards - Victoria (15.3%), Westborough (15.5%), Thorpe (16.0%).

The Liberal Democrats failed to reach three figures (100 votes) in eight wards, the same number as the Greens.

UKIP's highest vote was in Eastwood Park.

As it stands, my ward (Milton) now looks like safe Labour territory, and attracts the largest Labour vote in the borough. Of course this brings me pleasure, especially as five years ago it had no Labour councillors.

In general, the number of candidates (an average of six per ward) can muddy the picture. Where the Tories have had some successes then it has often come as a result of the fragmented nature of their opposition. The 2018 elections will see quite a number of wards where the defending councillor is not from the same party as the victors this year. 2018 sees UKIP defend its successes, which will be a challenge for a party better at fighting amongst itself in Southend-on-Sea than it is taking on its opponents. The Greens have a problem in that there is no obvious target for them; their best result (in Leigh) still saw them over a thousand votes short of success.

As for the Independent Group; this party in all but name seems incapable of strategic planning when it comes to elections and I get the sense that they are at their high-water mark.  There were a couple of places where success seemed a possibility, but somehow they messed this up.

Unless a miracle occurs I see the Liberal Democrats leaking yet more support, especially as the electorate must now see Labour as the natural blockers for the Tories in the borough. It would not surprise me to see them fail to field a full slate, and their battle seems to be with the Greens over who can claim fifth spot in the borough's popular vote.