Tuesday 14 August 2018

Where are the marginals?

ward majority winner runner-up
Blenheim Park 71 Labour Conservative
St Laurence 76 Conservative Independent
St Luke’s 120 Independent Labour
Leigh 198 Liberal Democrat Conservative
Prittlewell 257 Conservative Labour
Shoeburyness 285 Independent Conservative
West Shoebury 297 Conservative Independent
Chalkwell 365 Conservative Independent
West Leigh 448 Conservative Liberal Democrat
Milton 473 Labour Conservative
Southchurch 514 Conservative Independent
Kursaal 529 Labour Conservative
Eastwood Park 544 Conservative Liberal Democrat
Westborough 607 Labour Conservative
Victoria 730 Labour Conservative
Belfairs 884 Conservative Independent
Thorpe 936 Independent Conservative

The above table shows every ward in Southend-on-Sea and it indicates the majorities given in this May’s local elections. The table is ordered by the size of the majorities.

Opinions will vary as to what makes a marginal, but I would suggest anything under a 200 vote majority is a good measure. This means that four wards are marginal. Marginals are the most likely wards to provide gains and losses.

Conversely, this list shows which wards should be safe. It is especially comforting to this activist that Milton is the eighth most safe ward. This may be tempting fate, but with four Labour wards amongst the top eight most safe (albeit based on this year’s numbers) I believe that a growing Labour Group in Southend-on-Sea is an inevitable consequence.

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St Luke's Voice Winter 2018/19 edition