Where are the marginals?

ward	majority	winner	runner-up
Blenheim Park	71	Labour	Conservative
St Laurence	76	Conservative	Independent
St Luke’s	120	Independent	Labour
Leigh	198	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Prittlewell	257	Conservative	Labour
Shoeburyness	285	Independent	Conservative
West Shoebury	297	Conservative	Independent
Chalkwell	365	Conservative	Independent
West Leigh	448	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Milton	473	Labour	Conservative
Southchurch	514	Conservative	Independent
Kursaal	529	Labour	Conservative
Eastwood Park	544	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Westborough	607	Labour	Conservative
Victoria	730	Labour	Conservative
Belfairs	884	Conservative	Independent
Thorpe	936	Independent	Conservative

The above table shows every ward in Southend-on-Sea and it indicates the majorities given in this May’s local elections. The table is ordered by the size of the majorities.

Opinions will vary as to what makes a marginal, but I would suggest anything under a 200 vote majority is a good measure. This means that four wards are marginal. Marginals are the most likely wards to provide gains and losses.

Conversely, this list shows which wards should be safe. It is especially comforting to this activist that Milton is the eighth most safe ward. This may be tempting fate, but with four Labour wards amongst the top eight most safe (albeit based on this year’s numbers) I believe that a growing Labour Group in Southend-on-Sea is an inevitable consequence.

Your vote matters

The fewest number of candidates for four years

The candidates for the seventeen wards in the Borough of Southend-on-Sea have been announced. The table below shows the number of candidates in each ward, both for this year and for recent years.

	2018	2016	2015	2014	2012	2011	2010	2008	2007	2006	2004	2003
Belfairs	6	5	6	4	6	4	5	5	4	3	3	3
Blenheim Park	5	6	5	5	5	4	5	4	5	4	3	3
Chalkwell	4	6	5	5	5	4	7	5	5	3	4	4
Eastwood Park	3	5	4	4	4	4	6	4	3	3	3	3
Kursaal	3	5	5	5	5	5	7	4	4	4	5	5
Leigh	4	5	4	3	3	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Milton	5	6	5	5	5	4	6	4	6	5	3	3
Prittlewell	5	6	5	4	4	4	6	5	4	4	4	4
Shoeburyness	4	7	5	4	4	4	7	5	5	7	3	3
Southchurch	5	6	6	4	7	6	6	5	5	5	4	4
St Laurence	4	6	5	4	5	5	4	4	4	2	4	4
St Luke’s	6	6	7	5	5	7	7	7	5	5	4	4
Thorpe	4	6	5	4	4	4	6	5	4	4	3	3
Victoria	3	5	5	5	6	4	5	5	4	4	3	3
West Leigh	4	6	5	4	4	4	6	4	4	6	4	4
West Shoebury	4	6	4	4	5	4	6	4	5	6	3	3
Westborough	5	7	6	4	6	5	7	6	4	4	4	4
	74	99	87	73	83	76	100	80	74	72	60	60

This year sees the fewest number of candidates for four years, which could be down to any number of reasons, but is most likely due to the imploding and lack of organisation amongst the minor parties.

Recent years have seen a proliferation of candidates, with seven names on a ballot not unusual any more. Gone, for the moment at least, are the days when it was just a choice between the three main parties.

Both UKIP and the Independents (the non-party party) has had an impact in recent years, although UKIP’s self-destruction was farcical, if not outright comedic.

Without a proportional voting system the minor parties are nought but a distraction, often being more helpful in splitting the vote than in actually making any significant impact. Last year’s General Election saw the resuscitation of binary politics, and it feels like this trend has carried over into this year. I do not expect any gains by the minor parties, and losses are a strong possibility.

Whatever, there are seventeen fascinating battles ahead, and I wish all candidates well.

Cheryl Nevin re-selected to contest Milton ward

Cheryl, with Julian

Cllr Cheryl Nevin has been re-selected to contest Milton ward for Labour in next year’s local

elections.

Cllr Nevin was first elected in 2014. She works as a human resource manager in the National Health Service.

Cheryl chairs People Scrutiny. She also serves on Children’s Services Improvement Scrutiny, Conservation Working Party, and the joint Health Overview Scrutiny Committee.

Cheryl said: “It’s an honour to have been selected to serve the residents of Milton, which is a great community.”

Fellow Milton ward councillor, Julian Ware-Lane, said: “Cheryl has been a great advocate for Milton since being elected to the council chamber. I am delighted that she has been selected to fight to retain her seat, and I know she will work tirelessly for Milton if successful next May.”