Already thinking about 2018

I like numbers, which explains my penchant for number crunching the election results in Southend-on-Sea.

Here is some analysis which may be useful to some, and doubtless boring to others!

The battleground for 2018 is already being mapped out and nowhere is this better illustrated than by showing just how marginal some of those contests will be. It is pretty obvious that some wards are an electoral foregone conclusion, whereas others provide for intriguing possibilities.

ward	majority	victor	second placed
West Shoebury	43	Conservative	Independent
Southchurch	61	Conservative	Independent
Belfairs	61	Independent	Conservative
Prittlewell	78	Conservative	Labour
Shoeburyness	121	Independent	Conservative
Blenheim Park	160	Conservative	Labour
Westborough	242	Labour	Independent
Chalkwell	315	Conservative	Independent
Kursaal	330	Labour	UKIP
St Luke's	365	Independent	Labour
Eastwood Park	378	Conservative	UKIP
St Laurence	387	Conservative	UKIP
Milton	427	Labour	Conservative
West Leigh	450	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Leigh	611	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Victoria	630	Labour	UKIP
Thorpe	1398	Independent	Conservative

Four Tory held wards are marginal (majorities of less than 200), and this will prove significant for a council chamber that is so finely balanced. There are also four wards where the Tories do not feature in the top two, which is quite unusual for the borough.

There are seven wards where Labour secures more than 20% of the popular vote -

54.7% Victoria

45.3% Milton

42.2% Kursaal

33.9% Westborough

27.0% Prittlewell

24.6% Blenheim Park

20.9% St Luke's

The Tory vote share dips below 20% in three wards - Victoria (15.3%), Westborough (15.5%), Thorpe (16.0%).

The Liberal Democrats failed to reach three figures (100 votes) in eight wards, the same number as the Greens.

UKIP's highest vote was in Eastwood Park.

As it stands, my ward (Milton) now looks like safe Labour territory, and attracts the largest Labour vote in the borough. Of course this brings me pleasure, especially as five years ago it had no Labour councillors.

In general, the number of candidates (an average of six per ward) can muddy the picture. Where the Tories have had some successes then it has often come as a result of the fragmented nature of their opposition. The 2018 elections will see quite a number of wards where the defending councillor is not from the same party as the victors this year. 2018 sees UKIP defend its successes, which will be a challenge for a party better at fighting amongst itself in Southend-on-Sea than it is taking on its opponents. The Greens have a problem in that there is no obvious target for them; their best result (in Leigh) still saw them over a thousand votes short of success.

As for the Independent Group; this party in all but name seems incapable of strategic planning when it comes to elections and I get the sense that they are at their high-water mark.  There were a couple of places where success seemed a possibility, but somehow they messed this up.

Unless a miracle occurs I see the Liberal Democrats leaking yet more support, especially as the electorate must now see Labour as the natural blockers for the Tories in the borough. It would not surprise me to see them fail to field a full slate, and their battle seems to be with the Greens over who can claim fifth spot in the borough's popular vote.