Where are the marginals?

ward	majority	winner	runner-up
Blenheim Park	71	Labour	Conservative
St Laurence	76	Conservative	Independent
St Luke’s	120	Independent	Labour
Leigh	198	Liberal Democrat	Conservative
Prittlewell	257	Conservative	Labour
Shoeburyness	285	Independent	Conservative
West Shoebury	297	Conservative	Independent
Chalkwell	365	Conservative	Independent
West Leigh	448	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Milton	473	Labour	Conservative
Southchurch	514	Conservative	Independent
Kursaal	529	Labour	Conservative
Eastwood Park	544	Conservative	Liberal Democrat
Westborough	607	Labour	Conservative
Victoria	730	Labour	Conservative
Belfairs	884	Conservative	Independent
Thorpe	936	Independent	Conservative

The above table shows every ward in Southend-on-Sea and it indicates the majorities given in this May’s local elections. The table is ordered by the size of the majorities.

Opinions will vary as to what makes a marginal, but I would suggest anything under a 200 vote majority is a good measure. This means that four wards are marginal. Marginals are the most likely wards to provide gains and losses.

Conversely, this list shows which wards should be safe. It is especially comforting to this activist that Milton is the eighth most safe ward. This may be tempting fate, but with four Labour wards amongst the top eight most safe (albeit based on this year’s numbers) I believe that a growing Labour Group in Southend-on-Sea is an inevitable consequence.