Thursday, 18 August 2016

On an average of recent opinion polls Labour is 11.4% behind the Tories



Here is a summary of the most recent opinion polls:




CON
LAB
LDEM
UKIP
GRN
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
Ipsos MORI
45
34
7
6
4
Tuesday, August 16, 2016
ICM
40
28
8
14
4
Thursday, August 11, 2016
YouGov
38
31
8
13

Thursday, August 11, 2016
TNS
39
26
10
11
7
Thursday, August 4, 2016
YouGov
42
28
8
12
3
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
ICM
43
27
8
13

Tuesday, July 26, 2016
YouGov
40
28
8
13
4
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Opinium
37
31
6
15
4








averages
40.5
29.1
7.9
12.1
4.3



Whilst opinion polls are not everything, they are an awful lot. They do indicate popularity, and since popularity means votes then any politician who thinks they can be ignored is heading towards being an ex-politician.

 There are caveats with all polling, but notwithstanding the Leadership  crisis and a honeymoon for the new Prime Minister, the Opposition, Labour, really should  be doing a lot better.

Governing parties almost always suffer mid-term blues, seeing their councillor base dwindle as opinion swing against them. At the moment the reverse is happening. The Conservatives are defying the normal rules of political popularity and are looking forward to a third General Election in a row that sees their fortunes improve.

Instead of preparing for Government, Labour is preparing for disaster. At the moment a recovery in time for the next General Election looks a long shot.

Whoever wins the Labour Leadership one thing is certain: unless Labour's popularity improves we will lose in 2020, and we will be losing a good many MPs in the process. Still, Islington is secure.


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