Here is a summary of the most recent opinion polls:
|
CON
|
LAB
|
LDEM
|
UKIP
|
GRN
|
||
|
Wednesday,
August 17, 2016
|
Ipsos MORI
|
45
|
34
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
|
Tuesday,
August 16, 2016
|
ICM
|
40
|
28
|
8
|
14
|
4
|
|
Thursday,
August 11, 2016
|
YouGov
|
38
|
31
|
8
|
13
|
|
|
Thursday,
August 11, 2016
|
TNS
|
39
|
26
|
10
|
11
|
7
|
|
Thursday,
August 4, 2016
|
YouGov
|
42
|
28
|
8
|
12
|
3
|
|
Tuesday,
July 26, 2016
|
ICM
|
43
|
27
|
8
|
13
|
|
|
Tuesday,
July 26, 2016
|
YouGov
|
40
|
28
|
8
|
13
|
4
|
|
Sunday,
July 24, 2016
|
Opinium
|
37
|
31
|
6
|
15
|
4
|
|
averages
|
40.5
|
29.1
|
7.9
|
12.1
|
4.3
|
Whilst opinion polls are not everything, they are an
awful lot. They do indicate popularity, and since popularity means votes then
any politician who thinks they can be ignored is heading towards being an
ex-politician.
There are caveats
with all polling, but notwithstanding the Leadership crisis and a honeymoon for the new Prime
Minister, the Opposition, Labour, really should
be doing a lot better.
Governing parties almost always suffer mid-term blues,
seeing their councillor base dwindle as opinion swing against them. At the moment the reverse is happening. The Conservatives are defying the normal rules of political popularity and are looking forward to a third General Election in a row that sees their fortunes improve.
Instead of
preparing for Government, Labour is preparing for disaster. At the moment a
recovery in time for the next General Election looks a long shot.
Whoever wins the Labour Leadership one thing is certain:
unless Labour's popularity improves we will lose in 2020, and we will be losing
a good many MPs in the process. Still, Islington is secure.
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