Thursday, 5 April 2018

We should have a second referendum on Brexit


As a participant on many occasions in British democracy I cannot help but respect the outcomes of our various elections, even if I am sometimes disappointed. Of course, British democracy is a long way from perfect, and I campaign to improve it. Nonetheless, we must agree to accept outcomes, to do otherwise invites tyranny.

I was a Remain campaigner, and I still find the Brexit verdict both perplexing and disturbing.

I value our economic well-being and prosperity. I also value peace in western Europe. Above all, though, I value the UK’s role in the world. I am an internationalist, and somewhat shocked by some who appear determined to isolate the country and themselves.

As a democrat I respect the decision taken at the referendum, but this is not where democracy has to end. We can look at decisions to come and be asked to accept or reject potential outcomes.

The Brexit negotiations are revealing the reality of the UK outside of the EU. A poorer nation, isolated and alone, struggling to compete with global economic superpowers. Some will think unfavourable tariff arrangements, declining influence, and jobs going abroad are a price worth paying. Others will not. Whatever, lies were told during the referendum campaign and I suspect many are now having second thoughts about the wisdom of voting Leave.

The deal, when it is finally forged, may fall some way short of expectations. We voted to leave the EU, but it can be reasonably argued that this was not a mandate to leave at any price. It is not an unreasonable proposition, therefore, to invite the British voting public, to pass verdict over the negotiations – and ask whether it is ‘deal or no deal’. We must have a second referendum on that deal, on the Brexit negotiations, and whether it gives us what we want. What it finally looks like is so important to the future of the nation (and its integrity) that we cannot just trust blindly wander off without regard to what this really means to all our futures.

Some will doubtless cry foul, think we only need the one vote and that is it. However, democracy is an ongoing conversation. What a strange state of affairs it would be if we were never allowed to change our minds, or be allowed to voice opinions more than once.

Join in and make Southend sparkle


Monday, 2 April 2018

Opinion polling, February and March

Here are the opinion polls for the last two months -



Con
Lab
LDem
20 March 2018
ICM
44
41
8
20 March 2018
Opinium
42
40
6
11 March 2018
Ipsos MORI
43
42
6
11 March 2018
YouGov
41
43
7
11 March 2018
Survation
37
44
9
06 March 2018
ICM
43
42
7
16 February 2018
YouGov
40
41
8
12 February 2018
Opinium
42
39
7
08 February 2018
YouGov
43
39
8
06 February 2018
ICM
41
40
8
06 February 2018
Survation
40
43
8
02 February 2018
YouGov
42
42
6

The average of these gives the Conservatives a small lead.

41.5% Conservative
41.3% Labour
7.3% Liberal Democrat

This would give us another hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party.

The prediction :-

299 Conservative
278 Labour
36 SNP
14 Liberal Democrat

Whilst this narrows the gap between the two main parties (from the current 56 seats to 22) it still leaves Labour some way short of being able to form a Government. However, a minority Labour Government (as head of a coalition) is a possibility.

Of course, a General Election is not happening tomorrow, or likely very soon.

St Luke's Voice Winter 2018/19 edition