Opinion polling, February and March

Here are the opinion polls for the last two months -

		Con	Lab	LDem
20 March 2018	ICM	44	41	8
20 March 2018	Opinium	42	40	6
11 March 2018	Ipsos MORI	43	42	6
11 March 2018	YouGov	41	43	7
11 March 2018	Survation	37	44	9
06 March 2018	ICM	43	42	7
16 February 2018	YouGov	40	41	8
12 February 2018	Opinium	42	39	7
08 February 2018	YouGov	43	39	8
06 February 2018	ICM	41	40	8
06 February 2018	Survation	40	43	8
02 February 2018	YouGov	42	42	6

The average of these gives the Conservatives a small lead.

41.5% Conservative

41.3% Labour

7.3% Liberal Democrat

This would give us another hung Parliament with the Conservatives the largest party.

The prediction :-

299 Conservative

278 Labour

36 SNP

14 Liberal Democrat

Whilst this narrows the gap between the two main parties (from the current 56 seats to 22) it still leaves Labour some way short of being able to form a Government. However, a minority Labour Government (as head of a coalition) is a possibility.

Of course, a General Election is not happening tomorrow, or likely very soon.

A summary of the latest polls

Here is a summary of the opinion polls released over the last couple of months.

		Lab	Con	LDem	UKIP
Wednesday, 13 September, 2017	YouGov	42	41	7	3
Sunday, 10 September, 2017	ICM	42	42	7	4
Wednesday, 6 September, 2017	YouGov	42	41	6	4
Wednesday, 6 September, 2017	Survation	43	38	7	4
Tuesday, 29 August, 2017	ICM	42	42	7	3
Sunday, 20 August, 2017	Opinium	43	40	6	4
Friday, 4 August, 2017	YouGov	44	41	7
Thursday, 20 July, 2017	Ipsos MORI	42	41	9
Sunday, 16 July, 2017	Opinium	43	41	5	5
Sunday, 16 July, 2017	Survation	41	39	8	6
average		42.4	40.6	6.9	4.1

These show fairly consistent numbers, although the most recent Survation poll shows a generous Labour lead. Looking at the averages there is a small lead for Labour.

With a hung Parliament one has to be alive to the possibility of another snap election; if nothing else, Theresa May faces many obstacles that could result in defeat in the lobbies of the Commons.

Another election would likely see another hung Parliament. Labour’s small lead would likely evaporate as the norm is for Governments to improve over the short campaign (which makes the Tory’s throwing away of a twenty point lead in June all the more remarkable).

I cannot imagine the Tories wanting to take the risk of another General Election just yet, and I cannot see why Labour would want one just yet either. Jeremy Corbyn will want to open up a much bigger lead, and he must hope that the delicate and difficult Brexit negotiations will provide enough banana skins for the Tories to slip up on.

I have no special insight, but cannot see this Government lasting all the way to 2022. However, I can see them surviving some time yet, and I favour May 2021 as the most probable date for the next General Election. Labour should win that one, if for no other reason than I can see some very choppy economic waters up ahead.