East or West Southend, which is more winnable?

Here are the votes for the last seven general elections in the two Southend-on-Sea constituencies.

Southend West

	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	UKIP	Green	others
1992	27319	6139	15417		451	622
1997	18029	10600	15414	636		1835
2001	17313	9372	9319	1371
2005	18408	9072	9449	1349		1552
2010	20086	5850	12816	1714	644	2496
2015	22175	8154	4129	7803	2083	165
2017	26046	16046	2110	1666	831	492

Rochford and Southend East

	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrat	UKIP	Green	others
1992	24591	11480	5107			673
1997	22683	18458	4387			1007
2001	20058	13024	2780		990	600
2005	17874	12384	5967	1913	1328
2010	19509	8459	8084	2405	707	2467
2015	20241	10765	1459	8948	2195
2017	23013	17465	1265	1777	804	2924

It is received wisdom in the Labour Party in Southend-on-Sea that our prospects are much better in the east of the borough than they are in the west. This is based on a number of factors:

·         It is wisdom passed down through the years

·         The 1980 Southend East by-election when the Conservative majority was reduced to 430

·         Conservative majorities in the east have usually been smaller than those in the west

·         There are more Labour councillors in the east (currently six in the east, as opposed to three in the west)

·         The traditional second party in the west is the Liberal Democrats

These factors make sense, and you can see why the east has soaked up the majority of Southend Labour's resources over the years. It may be true going forwards too, but we should not ignore  the facts, particularly if they indicate that the west may hold possibilities.

Winnability sometimes comes down to self-fulfilling prophecy; keep saying we cannot win, or not putting in any significant effort, and the electorate will agree and not bother voting for you.

Looking at the chart below, which indicates the Conservative vote share for the last seven general elections, one can see that there have been occasions when the vote share in the west was lower than in the east. Now, if only we could manage the trick of getting all the non-Tory vote to back us ....

 

Tory vote share % in the two Southend constituencies, 1992 - 2017

So, which is more winnable for Labour? Well, it looks like it still is the eastern constituency, but.

Julian Ware-Lane pledges to become an Arthritis Champion for Southend West

If elected to Parliament at the General Election in June, Julian Ware-Lane has pledged to work alongside leading charity, Arthritis Research UK to represent the thousands of people in Southend West living every day with the pain of arthritis.

Arthritis is the single biggest cause of disability and pain across the country with 10 million people living with arthritis. and other musculoskeletal conditions such as back pain. The pain, fatigue and lack of mobility caused by arthritis affects every aspect of a person’s life, making everyday tasks such as making a cup of tea, travelling to work or getting out of bed extremely difficult.

As well as the personal impact, these conditions amount to the third largest area of NHS spending, with an annual budget of £4.8 billion, and are the cause of one in five working days lost in the UK.

Julian Ware-Lane has pledged to support Arthritis Research UK’s Prevent, Transform, Cure manifesto in Parliament as an Arthritis Champion, which calls for: 

  Making arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions a public health priority

  Ensuring people have timely access to health and care services that enable them to improve their musculoskeletal health

  Ensure people with arthritis and musculoskeletal conditions have fair and timely access to services that support them to be in work, including financial support

  Protect the UK’s position as a global leader in science and sustain the benefits of the life-science sector to the economy  

Speaking about becoming an arthritis champion, Julian Ware-Lane said:

“I’m proud to champion Arthritis Research UK’s policy calls to tackle the prevention, transformation and cure of arthritis. We need to put the issues affecting people with arthritis at the forefront of the new Parliament’s agenda.

“I’m committed to making a difference. Together we can fight this painful condition that has such a huge impact on all aspects of people’s lives in Southend.”

Dr Liam O’Toole, chief executive officer of Arthritis Research UK, said:

“I’m delighted that Julian Ware-Lane has committed to become an Arthritis Champion if elected to the House of Commons. It’s imperative that we have the support of as many MPs and Peers as possible in the next Parliament to stand up for the rights of people with arthritis.

“There needs to be a public health approach focusing on preventing arthritis, transforming services and finding a cure for the 10 million people affected by this devastating condition. It’s vital we work together to make life better for everyone affected by arthritis.”

For further information visit www.arthritisresearchuk.org/campaign

I support Samaritans #LocalActionSavesLives

The invited glove puppet

Jason Pilley, independent candidate for Southend West has posted this on Facebook:

On Sunday 4th June, Leigh Road Baptist Church is hosting a public meeting of the Southend West candidates. But not all of them: only the five who belong to the hierarchical-bureaucratic Parties have been given a platform to speak. The two Independents have not been invited.

This is not merely a matter of logistics, of having to draw the line somewhere: one of the Independents is an elected member of Southend Council, a fairly prominent figure locally, and certainly more important in Southend politics than some of those who’ve been allowed in: but he’s an Independent so he’s been silenced.

Leigh Road Baptist Church is a private organisation and I respect their right to do whatever they want on their premises; I also appreciate that there are all sorts of organisational issues with hosting an event like this, so I have no interest in starting an argument or causing trouble (“Kallisti!”). However, I cannot passively allow a church to decide on behalf of Southend residents which political viewpoints they will be allowed to hear: so I shall be arriving at the venue sometime before the event starts, I will be outside distributing my leaflets to anyone who arrives, making sure they’re aware that there’s more to democracy than the stagnant Parties.

If you’re in the area, come and say hello: ask me any questions and I bet you’ll get a better answer than from the glove-puppets inside :-)

Jason neglects to add that he tried to be part of the 'hierarchical-bureaucratic Parties' -  he was rejected in his attempts to be the Green Party candidate, and is still a member of that party I am told.

Despite being a 'glove-puppet' he has invited me to attend. Perhaps he secretly likes glove-puppets.

I happen to believe all seven candidates should have been invited; I have no sway over Leigh Road Baptists.

"Glove puppet"

"Glove puppet"

"Glove puppet"