Monday, 18 June 2018

Shadow cabinet, and a peak at the future

Labour Group on Southend-on-Sea Borough Council had its shadow cabinet meeting last week, where the seven that have portfolios assembled.

Primarily our (the Labour Group’s) role is to hold the Conservative administration to account. However, thoughts do occasionally turn to the future and the very real possibility that the Conservatives could lose their grip on power next May, when the next set of local elections are due to take place.

The Conservatives have 29 councillors in Southend-on-Sea at the moment, giving them a majority of seven. Four gains will see them ousted (if the opposition groupings can agree to work together). A repeat of this year’s results will see the opposition (as it stands today) sitting in power with a majority of three.

The table below shows how vulnerable six Conservative seats are (and how safe the others probably are). This is a list of the seats that the Conservatives will be defending next may, ranked in order of the Conservative majority as seen this year. The electoral arithmetic shows that a changed of Administration in Southend-on-Sea is very possible, although conversely the Conservatives could make gains.




Conservative Majority 2015
Conservative Majority 2018
2nd in 2018
Won in 2018
Kursaal
-416
-529


Labour
Milton
51
-473


Labour
Shoeburyness
208
-285


Independent
Leigh
495
-198


Liberal Democrat
Blenheim Park
787
-71


Labour
St Laurence
1163
76
Independent


Prittlewell
1349
257
Labour


West Shoebury
874
297
Independent


Chalkwell
1371
365
Independent


West Leigh
1807
488
Liberal Democrat


Southchurch
755
514
Independent


Eastwood Park
1910
544
Liberal Democrat


Belfairs
1038
884
Independent



  • Those that are defending their seats in 2019 were last elected in 2015.
  • The 2015 General Election boosted everyone’s figures, and especially those of the Conservatives locally. However, this years numbers did not have this coincidence, and 2019 is unlikely to see a General Election either.
  • The first five wards could easily be lost by the Tories, and number six (St Laurence) looks vulnerable too.
  • Kursaal was won by Labour in 2015, but the winner (Cllr McMahon) subsequently defected to the Conservatives
  • If Labour make three gains they will have 14 councillors. The Independent Group and the Liberal Democrats need to have 12 councillors (combined) to see the Tories lose power; currently they have ten, meaning two gains are required by them, and the most likely places these could happen is in Shoeburyness and Leigh.
  • If 2019 does continue recent trends, then 2020 does not offer a lot of solace to the Conservatives. Whilst they are only really vulnerable in a couple of wards, likely gains there are none.

No comments:

Post a Comment