Shadow cabinet, and a peak at the future

Labour Group on Southend-on-Sea Borough Council had its shadow cabinet meeting last week, where the seven that have portfolios assembled.

Primarily our (the Labour Group’s) role is to hold the Conservative administration to account. However, thoughts do occasionally turn to the future and the very real possibility that the Conservatives could lose their grip on power next May, when the next set of local elections are due to take place.

The Conservatives have 29 councillors in Southend-on-Sea at the moment, giving them a majority of seven. Four gains will see them ousted (if the opposition groupings can agree to work together). A repeat of this year’s results will see the opposition (as it stands today) sitting in power with a majority of three.

The table below shows how vulnerable six Conservative seats are (and how safe the others probably are). This is a list of the seats that the Conservatives will be defending next may, ranked in order of the Conservative majority as seen this year. The electoral arithmetic shows that a changed of Administration in Southend-on-Sea is very possible, although conversely the Conservatives could make gains.

	Conservative Majority 2015	Conservative Majority 2018	2nd in 2018	Won in 2018
Kursaal	-416	-529		Labour
Milton	51	-473		Labour
Shoeburyness	208	-285		Independent
Leigh	495	-198		Liberal Democrat
Blenheim Park	787	-71		Labour
St Laurence	1163	76	Independent
Prittlewell	1349	257	Labour
West Shoebury	874	297	Independent
Chalkwell	1371	365	Independent
West Leigh	1807	488	Liberal Democrat
Southchurch	755	514	Independent
Eastwood Park	1910	544	Liberal Democrat
Belfairs	1038	884	Independent

• Those that are defending their seats in 2019 were last elected in 2015.
• The 2015 General Election boosted everyone’s figures, and especially those of the Conservatives locally. However, this years numbers did not have this coincidence, and 2019 is unlikely to see a General Election either.
• The first five wards could easily be lost by the Tories, and number six (St Laurence) looks vulnerable too.
• Kursaal was won by Labour in 2015, but the winner (Cllr McMahon) subsequently defected to the Conservatives
• If Labour make three gains they will have 14 councillors. The Independent Group and the Liberal Democrats need to have 12 councillors (combined) to see the Tories lose power; currently they have ten, meaning two gains are required by them, and the most likely places these could happen is in Shoeburyness and Leigh.
• If 2019 does continue recent trends, then 2020 does not offer a lot of solace to the Conservatives. Whilst they are only really vulnerable in a couple of wards, likely gains there are none.