In
our imperfect electoral system it is not the number of votes that each party
acquires that counts, it is the number of seats in Parliament. This figure
shows the respective seats gained by the two main political parties at every
General Election since World War Two.
The
most obvious trend is that once the leading party, the Government, starts
losing seats this trend continues until their defeat. This will not be welcome
news for the current Prime Minister. However, Mrs May might console herself
with the fact that whilst her party are likely to lose seats at the next
General Election (based on the precedent of history), this does not necessarily
mean that the next GE will witness a Labour victory.
Labour
has fifty-five fewer MPs than the Conservatives at the moment, a gap that has
been bridged before (1997 and 1964). It must be said, though, that it was Blair
and Wilson, two electorally successful Labour leaders who achieved this feat.
Corbyn has yet to prove himself a winner, and who knows when he will get his
chance to do that. However, he will rightly welcome another chance to chip away
at the Conservative led in the House of Commons, and next time may yet see him
given the keys to number ten.
The
biggest leads for Labour over the Conservatives occurred under Tony Blair,
whose worst result still saw Labour with 157 more MPs than the Tories. Blair’s
electoral achievements exceed all since WWII, not even Thatcher versus Foot
came close to the drubbing inflicted by Blair on John Major.
Minority
Governments have been quite resilient, and I am not expecting another General
Election any time soon. My money is on 2021, but this is just a guess. With
fewer by-elections these days I do not expect the whittling away of the
Coalition’s majority, a phenomena that gave both John Major and James Callaghan
some fraught moments towards the end of their respective premierships.
GE
|
Lab
|
Con
|
Lab - Con
|
|
5-Jul-1945
|
393
|
197
|
196
|
|
23-Feb-1950
|
315
|
298
|
17
|
|
25-Oct-1951
|
295
|
321
|
-26
|
|
26-May-1955
|
277
|
345
|
-68
|
|
8-Oct-1959
|
258
|
365
|
-107
|
|
15-Oct-1964
|
317
|
304
|
13
|
|
31-Mar-1966
|
364
|
253
|
111
|
|
18-Jun-1970
|
288
|
330
|
-42
|
|
28-Feb-1974
|
301
|
297
|
4
|
|
10-Oct-1974
|
319
|
277
|
42
|
|
3-May-1979
|
269
|
339
|
-70
|
|
9-Jun-1983
|
209
|
397
|
-188
|
|
11-Jun-1987
|
229
|
376
|
-147
|
|
9-Apr-1992
|
271
|
336
|
-65
|
|
1-May-1997
|
418
|
165
|
253
|
|
7-Jun-2001
|
413
|
166
|
247
|
|
5-May-2005
|
355
|
198
|
157
|
|
6-May-2010
|
258
|
306
|
-48
|
|
7-May-2015
|
232
|
330
|
-98
|
|
8-Jun-2017
|
262
|
317
|
-55
|
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